AgoraNova - Analyses

The Islamic Republic under Existential Pressure: Domestic Durability, Strategy, and the Risks of Continued Escalation Without Off-Ramps

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran has transformed a political conflict into a threat to regime survival.

Existential conflicts have no off-ramps: when regime survival is at stake, the duration of confrontation fundamentally changes. Iran cannot defeat the US or Israel militarily, but it can sustain energy disruption indefinitely – making this a crisis of potentially years, not weeks.

The Future of AI Governance: A Measured Reaction from EU Regulators with the AI Omnibus Proposal

The EU's proposed AI Omnibus seeks to simplify the AI Act before it even takes effect, but risks weakening data protection safeguards and provider accountability.

This debate unfolds against a broader geopolitical backdrop, as the EU's rights-based regulatory model increasingly diverges from the US innovation-first approach and China's state-centric strategy.

Investing in Ruins: Power and Reconstruction in New Syria

Syria faces massive reconstruction needs. These needs present a strategic opportunity for regional and international actors.

Five major fault lines shape Syria’s investment landscape: geopolitical, political, legal, economic, and social.

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